Thaksin and Thailand's foreign policy

The erstwhile Democrat-led government of Abhisit Vejjajiva made "catching the fugitive" the heart of its foreign policy. Mr Abhisit's Foreign Ministry team _ including Kasit Piromya as foreign minister, vice-minister Panich Vikitsreth and the minister's secretary Chavanond Intarakomalyasut _ spent a vast amount of time and resources on this unsuccessful venture.

The costs and negative consequences from such a one-track policy are high and have now become a burden on the present government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

The intense political conflict since the coup d'etat of Sept 19, 2006 derailed the foreign policy initiatives put in place during the administration of Thaksin Shinawatra. His vision was carried out by Surakiart Sathirathai and, subsequently, by Kanthati Suphamongkhon. As foreign ministers, both were at the forefront in putting Thailand on the international radar screen. Recognition was not limited to the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations and neighbouring countries, but expanded into many formal and informal multilateral forums such as the Asian Cooperation Dialogue. The expanded network was designed to put Thailand as the centre of the various ongoing discussions and dialogues. In our globalised world it is essential to be in the midst of things and, of course, to be recognised and consulted.

Thaksin's game plan seemed to work smoothly. Multilateral, bilateral and business deals were made, although later on Thaksin was accused of making deals for his own benefit. But all in all, the nation benefited.

The free trade agreements _ for instance with China and India _ which were attacked by the then opposition Democrat Party and the People's Alliance for Democracy, have since proved to be the key instruments in sustaining trade and growth as China and India emerge as the engine of growth for Asia-Pacific and the world. Neighbouring countries, especially our historical arch-enemies Cambodia and Burma, were on talking terms and relations were friendly.

Thailand's respectable status provided a platform for Mr Surakiart to run for the post of the United Nations secretary-general; he was a front-runner, till the coup ended Thailand's legitimacy as a viable democracy.

From that point on, Thai diplomacy went south. It hit rock bottom during Mr Abhisit's administration.

The failed Asean summit and a non-productive Asean chair, the bickering with Cambodia, the non-dialogue with Burma, the lukewarm relations with China, the walking out of the World Heritage meeting are prime examples of diplomatic missteps and the determinant of foreign policy to please domestic alliances that toppled Thaksin and brought into power the last government.

That being said, on the flip side of the coin, now that Thaksin's supporters are back in power and Ms Yingluck is prime minister, they must not fall into the same pit. For if Mr Abhisit's foreign policy priority was to hunt down Thaksin, Ms Yingluck's diplomacy should not be only to vindicate Thaksin at any cost.

The current controversy about Japan granting permission for Thaksin to enter the country next week, could be a prelude to more controversies yet to come. It appears that the past government used political pressure on other countries to constrain Thaksin from travelling where he wished. Thaksin is not on the "wanted" list of Interpol. The criminal cases against Thaksin, especially the one in which he was found guilty, may be so under Thai law and the Thai court's decision, but many countries viewed them as political in nature.

What is not consistent is what happened after Ms Yingluck assumed premiership and the new Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul was appointed. The Japanese indicated that the visa request was from the Thai government; Ms Yingluck and Mr Surapong said it was the decision of the Japanese and that Thaksin was on a personal trip, that he was not a government representative. The opposition Democrats are gearing up to impeach the prime minister and foreign minister, claiming both have overstepped the bounds of the Constitution.

In parallel, a newspaper quoted a source regarding the intention of the new government to return Thaksin's diplomatic passport, which he is entitled to as a former prime minister. The Surayud government revoked it after the coup and the last government continued with that policy.

The matter has been denied by Mr Surapong as he has yet to review the documents.

In addition, in the past two days, news of Thaksin travelling to Cambodia has been tied with the discussions on the development of gas fields in the Gulf of Thailand. This is another politically sensitive issue that could bring the yellow-shirted PAD back into action. Noppadon Pattama, another former foreign minister and close aide to Thaksin, has denied that Thaksin plans to visit Cambodia.

Some say Thaksin should sit still, but knowing Thaksin, that won't happen. He will continue with his business ventures while at the same time working to exonerate himself. However, Thaksin's vast network could be beneficial to the nation's interests. Ms Yingluck must prove she can use her brother's resources for the benefit of all instead of vice versa.

It would not be fair to instantly brand Mr Surapong as Thaksin's lackey. Mr Surapong has spent years with the Democrats and was vocal in his attacks on Thaksin's telecom policies and conflicts of interest. His turnaround, according to him, was because he learned something was wrong in the Democrats' line of attack. Although he is not an old diplomatic hand as some would like, he is a veteran politician who knows the ins and outs. Give him a chance and maybe he can achieve what an old hand like Mr Kasit could not.

Domestic political fights that engulf and dictate foreign affairs result in lost opportunities in trade, investment and security leverage. The current economic crisis in Europe and the United States and the upcoming Asean Economic Community in 2015 are issues that must be dealt with immediately.

Effective diplomacy will play an important role in Thailand's future and its place in the world. The nation's credibility in international forums must be rebuilt after five years in the doldrums.

Ms Yingluck and Mr Surapong must make a clean break from the circle of issues surrounding Thaksin in foreign affairs. My concern is, if this government's foreign policy remains tangled with Thaksin, albeit from a different and opposite angle, it would be no different from the previous government's, with the end result that our country is left in even worse shape for everyone concerned.

 

19/08/2011
Suranand Vejjajiva
Bangkok Post